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August 17, 2026 (Bloomberg): “China’s economy got off to a sluggish start in the second half, as industrial output, consumption and investment fared worse than expected “ [LINK]

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@ChinaBeigeBook‘s July data show a broad-based slowdown in the economy. Every key indicator from revenue & profits to sales prices & hiring weakened from a year ago…Manufacturing & Commodities lost steam while Retail & Services also weakened.

August 14, 2026 (Reuters): “Outstanding yuan loans grew by 5.1% y/y in July, down from 5.2% in June at a ​record low..corporate loans fell by 130 billion after a rise of 1.5 trillion [in June], according to Reuters’ calculations.“ [LINK]

August 14, 2026 (Bloomberg): “Aggregate financing, a broad measure of credit, increased 1.4 trillion yuan, more than forecast by economists polled by Bloomberg. But almost all of that came from sales of government bonds, which totaled 1.3 trillion yuan.“ [LINK]

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The key sentence from @ChinaBeigeBook‘s July flash data report: “Pent-up Demand for loans continued falling.” Lower rates did nothing to lift corporate borrowing, which remained anchored at historic lows (15 years of data). China’s credit transmission mechanism is broken.

July 14, 2026 (Reuters): “China’s exports surged in June, buoyed by demand for chips and data center computing power to fuel the global AI boom, giving policymakers grappling with how to boost domestic demand in the world’s second-largest economy a much-needed buffer .” [LINK]

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Exports powered the economy through Q2. As @ChinaBeigeBook‘s May data revealed, even amid slower manufacturing growth, export orders were powering ahead, with U.S. bound orders jumping year-over-year.

 

July 15, 2026 (Caixin Global): “China’s retail sales reversed a contraction to grow 1% year-on-year in June, official data showed Wednesday, beating market expectations and signaling stronger consumer momentum.” [LINK]

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The consumption economy rebounded in June, per @ChinaBeigeBook‘s Retail and Services sectors surveys. But this is still a one month bounce in an otherwise poor quarter for consumer spending.

July 15, 2026 (Caixin Global): “China’s industrial output accelerated in June, driven by a surge in high-tech manufacturing and robust exports that helped offset a prolonged real estate downturn and weak domestic consumption” [LINK]

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@ChinaBeigeBook: The trend showed no signs of cooling off in June, with production and new orders accelerating. U.S.-destined orders again grew sharply.

May 17, 2026 (Bloomberg): “China’s economy slowed across the board in April with investment resuming declines while retail sales and industrial output fell short of forecasts, underscoring the economy’s vulnerability in the face of a global energy crisis.” [LINK]

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@ChinaBeigeBook’s April data show the economy fading after March’s resilient performance, but continuing to expand y/y. Early signs show…Iran War helping some but hurting more: Commodities predictably benefited..Manufacturing & certain consumer-facing industries weakened.

 

May 10, 2026 (Bloomberg): “China’s factory prices grew at the fastest pace since July 2022 as the fallout from the Iran war pushed up costs for companies, while cheaper food keeps consumer inflation in check.” [LINK]

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April’s @ChinaBeigeBook inflation metrics also accelerated compared to a year ago. In fact, price pressures began building in our surveys in March, when the initial shocks from the Iran war were felt.

May 17, 2026 (Bloomberg): “Purchases of home appliances and furniture…declined at a double-digit pace. Gold, silver and jewelry sales plummeted 21% — a huge reversal from earlier this year and 2025, when soaring prices for precious metals led to a speculative investment frenzy.” [LINK]

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The dull consumer story went beyond just retail spending in April. @ChinaBeigeBook data also saw most weakness in luxury goods and furniture & appliances. But Services sectors also struggled, especially restaurants and hospitality.

July 15, 2026 (Bloomberg): “Credit extension usually picks up in June because banks push for more lending to achieve their quarterly targets. But borrowing demand is showing little sign of emerging from a years-long funk caused by weak domestic consumer spending and investment.” [LINK]

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Yes. As June’s @ChinaBeigeBook flash data said:

Corporate borrowing fell back to historic doldrums, despite interest rates sliding. No sector reported higher borrowing than a year ago..lower loan application rate and weaker pent-up demand suggest poor corporate credit appetite.

May 14, 2026 (Bloomberg): “China’s credit expansion slowed far more than expected from a year earlier in April while banks extended less new loans, underscoring unusually anemic borrowing demand..Corporate bond and equity financing rose decently last month…” [LINK]

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1. “Anemic” is right. Corporate borrowing & bond sales slowed y/y in @ChinaBeigeBook‘s Apr data (despite rising m/m). But, critically, as we wrote “corporate disinterest in credit uptake remains: plunging loan rejections did not lead to a corresponding jump in loan applications.

May 14, 2026 (Reuters): “Outstanding yuan loans grew 5.6% in April from a year earlier – a record low – to 280.5 trillion yuan, slower than 5.7% in March – when ​the total loans were at 280.51 trillion yuan.” [LINK]

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2. This is now a long running issue. In Q1 borrowing nearly halved y/y per CBB while loan applications were at historic lows. The result, we said, was “monetary easing is no longer reaching the real economy, and the credit channel appears..effectively broken”

December 14, 2025 (Bloomberg): “China’s retail sales growth was the weakest since Covid while investment slumped further, underlining growing risks to the economy after several months of deterioration.” [LINK]

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1. Yes there was a broader consumption slowdown in November, effecting both Retail & Services industries.
@ChinaBeigeBook‘s Flash Data summed it up as: Consumer spending did slow versus October, with “Single’s Day” disappointing this year, despite there being so, so many singles.

2. We’ve been reporting on the fading effect of subsidies and it was much more prominent last month in @ChinaBeigeBook‘s retailing data, e.g. big on-year drop in Furniture & Appliance sales growth.

 

November 19, 2025 (Bloomberg): “China is considering new measures to turn around its struggling property market, as concerns mount that a further weakening of the sector will threaten to destabilize its financial system.” [LINK]

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The @ChinaBeigeBook sales price index across the residential sectors similarly shows pain and no reliable sign of prices on a path to recovery.

November 19, 2025 (Bloomberg): “China is considering new measures to turn around its struggling property market, as concerns mount that a further weakening of the sector will threaten to destabilize its financial system.” [LINK]

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Data from @ChinaBeigeBook‘s residential real estate sector has long shown the same trend. Mortgage rates have fallen dramatically.

October 21, 2025 (Reuters): “New home prices fell 0.4% month-on-month, following a 0.3% fall in August…Year-on-year, prices fell 2.2% in September versus a 2.5% drop in August..Secondary home prices slid 3.2% year-on-year in tier-one cities, 5.0% in tier-two, and 5.7% in tier-three.” [LINK]

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September’s @ChinaBeigeBook flash data showed the property market still broadly struggling, with residential realtors reporting on-year and on-month weakness in sales prices.

October 20, 2025 (Bloomberg): “Booming exports helped drive industrial output to expand 6.5% in September, exceeding all economists’ estimates. That contributed to third-quarter growth that took the increase for January to September to 5.2%.” [LINK]

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As @ChinaBeigeBook has argued in recent weeks, the idea that Chinese manufacturing is seeing a ‘record’ slowdown because of contracting PMIs is simply wrong.

1. PMI of large Chinese manufacturers has been accelerating the last 2 months. It’s been in expansion territory–above 50–most of the year, including since May while the headline number has been contracting.

The slowdown is concentrated among small and medium-sized firms.

2. The production sub-index has been accelerating since August as well. As a matter of fact, September saw the strongest print in 6 months.

And production has also been above 50 most of the year, including since May.

Instead, markets missed that China’s manufacturing output rebounded through September (commodities production been running hot too).

As September’s@ChinaBeigeBook data read: “Factory activity rebounded, as we predicted last month. Output growth picked up on-year and on-month...

September 18, 2025 (Reuters): “China, which accounts for just over half of global steel production, saw output drop for a third month in August per official data..Steel output for the first eight months was 671.81 million tons, a drop of 2.8% from the corresponding period last year” [LINK]

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We saw steel production accelerate m/m though not y/y in August. More importantly, we wrote, CBB’s Steel Output Index climbed for a fourth consecutive month and net capacity expansion was also rising. This suggests a Q3 steel production rebound!

July 13, 2025 (Bloomberg): “China’s coal imports fell to their lowest in more than two years on weak demand and higher domestic production. Import volumes dropped to their lowest since February 2023 in June.” [LINK]

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Yes coal production has been on a tear. From @ChinaBeigeBook‘s June commodities note: “CBB’s output index hit its highest monthly read for the sub-sector since November 2023…This may be additional bad news for coal exporting countries.”

July 14, 2025 (Bloomberg): “China’s steel output had its biggest drop in 10 months in June, falling 9.2% from the year before to 83.2 million tons. That left first-half production at its weakest since 2020.” [LINK]

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Proprietary steel sector surveys from @ChinaBeigeBook also show a serious slowdown in output over 1H 2025. (Interestingly, however, our June specific data actually showed a jump in production.)

July 14, 2025 (Bloomberg): “New-home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, dropped 0.27% from May, the most in eight months, National Bureau of Statistics figures showed Tuesday. Values of second-hand homes fell 0.61%, the biggest decline since September.” [LINK]

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As @ChinaBeigeBook‘s s June data showed. From our Flash release: “Both home builders and realtors reported sharp on-year declines in sales and price growth.”

 

June 30, 2025 (Reuters): “Resale home prices dropped 0.75% in Jun compared with a 0.71% decline in May & slumped 7.26% y/y from 7.24% fall the prev month, per China Index Academy..New home prices also rose at a slower pace in Jun increasing 0.19% compared to 0.30% the prev month” [LINK]

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Worth re-iterating new signs of weakness in China’s housing market. From @ChinaBeigeBook‘s June data: “Both home builders and realtors reported sharp y/y declines in sales and price growth. Residential realtors also noted significant m/m weakness despite cheaper mortgage rates.”

June 20, 2025 (Reuters): “too much Chinese smelting capacity has been brought on line too quickly with newcomers chasing down available tonnage. The rapid scale-up of Chinese processing capacity is clear to see in the country’s production of refined metal. May output jumped by almost 14% y/y per the NBS” [LINK]

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Yep! As we wrote in @ChinaBeigeBook‘s May Commodities Tracker, Chinese copper production rocketed on-year and on-month in May, alongside net capacity expansion.

 

June 19, 2025 (Reuters): “The steel sector would probably be doing worse if it wasn’t for the strength in exports which jumped almost 10%yy in May to 10.58 million tons. For the first five months of the year steel exports rose 8.9% to 48.47 million tons, a record for this period.” [LINK]

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As we wrote in @ChinaBeigeBook‘s May Commodities Tracker, steel export orders growth were much stronger than year-ago levels. Importantly, also look at that huge jump in April export orders for steel producers in CBB data!

June 23, 2025 (Bloomberg): “About 2.5 million tons were exported in the first five months of 2025, according to the latest customs data, which is 13% more than the same period last year. Japan, Indonesia and South Korea were the top destinations” [LINK]

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Been watching this trend with a lot of curiosity! @ChinaBeigeBook‘s coal industry surveys showed a steady expansion in export orders this year with big jumps in March and April!

June 26, 2025 (Bloomberg): “New-home prices in 70 cities, excl state-subsidized housing, dropped 0.22% from Apr, when they slid 0.12%..Values of used homes fell 0.5%, sharpest decline in 8 months..Residential sales by value declined 6.1% in May from an already low base a year earlier” [LINK]

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As we wrote in @ChinaBeigeBook‘s May release, construction data disappointed last month. Home builders stood out, reporting weaker sales as well as slower price growth compared to last May as well as April.

March 16, 2025 (Bloomberg): “Retail sales clocked their best reading in the first 2 months since October..while industrial output exceeded the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Growth in fixed-asset investment marked the fastest gain since the first 4 months of 2024.” [LINK]

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Manufacturing continued to strengthen, as @ChinaBeigeBook showed almost 3 weeks ago. This was thanks at least in part to frontloading as seen from a big jump in export orders (esp from Asia).”

March 17, 2025 (Bigmint): “China’s coke output in Jan-Feb’25 reached 81.9 mnt, reflecting a 1.6% yy increase. Meanwhile, industrial raw coal production above designated size rose by 7.7% yy to 770 mnt…The average daily raw coal output stood at 12.97 mnt.” [LINK]

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Industry wants capacity cuts, but with energy security a priority Chinese coal plants are expanding production and ramping up capacity, per  @ChinaBeigeBook‘s February Commodities Tracker”

 

 

March 16, 2025 (Reuters): “China’s crude steel output slid 1.5% from a year earlier…total Jan-Feb output is equivalent to avg daily output of about 2.82 million tons, 0.7% higher than 2.8 million tons a day in the same period last year per Reuters calculations of official data.” [LINK]

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Steel output slowed sharply in Jan, per @ChinaBeigeBook. But production rebounded into Feb along w/ capacity. 

As we wrote: “expansion in both net capacity and capex stand in sharp contrast to the state economic planner’s recent announcements about downsizing the steel sector.”

 

March 2, 2025 (Reuters): “Prices of second hand homes fell 7.3% YY on avg in Feb..while avg price of new builds in the same 100 cities increased 2.7%..A separate report from the same institute showed the sales of the top 100 Chinese real estate companies increased 17.3% YY in Feb” [LINK]

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In line with the February @ChinaBeigeBook housing market surveys. Home builders reported faster sales growth whereas residential realtors said transaction volumes slowed.

March 3, 2025 (The Daily Shot): “3. China’s steel exports are surging as domestic demand weakens, while steelmaker profits have collapsed to multi-decade lows. The divergence highlights a struggling domestic market, with excess supply shifting overseas.” [LINK]

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*The* critical point in @ChinaBeigeBook‘s 2024 commodities notes. As we summed up in Dec:

“Chinese steel exports accelerated sharply..China will likely continue producing more metal than expected and—until forced to pivot—continue to rely on foreign markets to absorb the excess”

February 18, 2025 (Bloomberg): “China’s decline in new-home prices eased for a 5th month in Jan, suggesting values are beginning to stabilize..slump eased on a year-on-year basis too. New-home prices fell 5.43% in January v 5.73% in Dec..Existing-home prices dropped 7.8%, versus 8.11%” [LINK]

“New-home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, fell 0.07% from December, when they declined 0.08%…Values of used homes, which are subject to less government intervention, fell 0.34%, compared with a 0.31% drop a month earlier.” [LINK]

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As @ChinaBeigeBook‘s January home builder and realtor surveys showed. As we wrote: “China’s housing market continued to trend in the right direction. The sales price index rose on-month and on-year for both home builders and realtors.”

February 5, 2025 (Bloomberg): “Chinese Splurge During Holidays But Angst Over Spending Persists: Chinese consumers shattered records for travel and movie attendance during the Lunar New Year holiday, a splurge that has yet to translate into a turnaround for the consumer economy.” [LINK]

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As @ChinaBeigeBook‘s January data showed, industries like travel, hospitality, and chain restaurants reported better sales in the lead up to Chinese New Year celebrations.

The PMIs seem to have simply missed this.

January 30, 2025 (Bloomberg): “China posted record production in 2024 for commodities including coal, gas and aluminum. Steel output dropped, although it held above 1 billion tons for a fifth consecutive year.” [LINK]

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Chinese steel exports accelerated sharply Y/Y in December. Predictably, aluminum didn’t. Bearish outlook for steel may be overstated. China will likely continue producing more metal than expected and—until forced to pivot—continue to rely on foreign markets to absorb the excess.

January 21, 2025 (Reuters): “The steel industry is actually remarkably resilient in the face of major economic challenges, and that output has been essentially flat at extremely strong levels for the past five years.” [LINK]

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China also produced more steel in 2024 than anticipated as CBB data showed via our real-time data. The year ended on a softer note, however, as output slowed on-month and on-year in December.

 

January 30, 2025 (Bloomberg): “China posted record production in 2024 for commodities including coal, gas and aluminum. Steel output dropped, although it held above 1 billion tons for a fifth consecutive year.” [LINK]

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Aluminum and copper production shot up in December. Output for each climbed some of the highest levels seen in recent years. As CBB has repeatedly showed, expectations of aluminum and copper shortages in China were out of sync w/ reality on the ground.

 

As @ChinaBeigeBook‘s December data showed, gains from Beijing’s much-ballyhooed fall stimulus package have already petered out, more so than official and private PMIs suggest.

December 30, 2024 (CN Wire): “China December Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.5 [Est.51.7 Prev.51.5]” [LINK]

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We agree that manufacturing slowed in December, with new orders sliding hard.

As we wrote, “The pulling forward of trade before anticipated 2025 tariffs has ended. The only rescue in on-year terms is if Trump’s China tariff talk is hot air.”

January 5, 2025 (WSJ): “China Caixin Services PMI Shows Stronger Activity Growth” [LINK]

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Services was mixed year-on-year with a positive monthly result. This is a far cry from a sustained consumption acceleration. Bottom-line: Beijing’s narrow stimulus measures have thus far failed to boost consumer spending as investors hoped.

Here’s the important divergence, however. China’s official construction PMI jumped in Dec when construction activity naturally slows down. Maybe firms reported 2025 projects early? In contrast, CBB saw slower growth in starts and our proprietary Fiscal Activity Index flatlined.

December 16, 2024 (MySteel): “Within the total, 3.7 million tonnes were produced during November alone, higher by 3.6% on year, the data showed. However, compared with October’s primary aluminum output, last month’s volume slipped by 0.3%” [LINK]

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Steel production has remained far higher this year than markets anticipated.

As we wrote in the @ChinaBeigeBook November commodities update: “Aluminum production decelerated from October’s blistering pace, but easily outran year-ago levels.”

 

December 17, 2024 (Reuters): “on a tons/day basis November’s [output] was 2.61Mt, down only 1.1% from October’s 2.64Mt and higher than 2.54Mt from November 2023…while this isn’t a bullish story it’s far from the bearish narrative that is the current market consensus.” [LINK]

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Steel production has remained far higher this year than markets anticipated.

As @ChinaBeigeBook‘s November steel sector survey also showed, output expanded year-on-year.

December 15, 2024 (Bloomberg): “China’s retail sales growth unexpectedly weakened in Novr despite signs of improvement in the housing mkt highlighting urgency for Beijing to further encourage residents to spend. Retail sales rose 3%y/y..undershooting even the most bearish of forecasts.” [LINK]

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Here’s the key sentence on consumer spending from @ChinaBeigeBook‘s November release: “Crucially, Beijing’s stimulus efforts have not yet lifted Retail and Services from trend performance (and may not be intended to).”

December 9, 2024 (CNBC): “China’s steel exports last month surged by 16% from a year ago to 9.28 million tons. The country’s steel exports have been surging this year and are expected to cross 100 million metric ton mark, matching levels last seen in 2016.” [LINK]

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As @ChinaBeigeBook‘s November data showed in real-time: “Export order growth jumped for Chinese steelmakers. This trend will only inflame China’s trade tensions with developing countries, while providing the Trump administration ample fodder to justify piling on new tariffs.”

 

December 1, 2024 (Reuters): “Prices of new homes in China rose at a faster pace in November, a private survey showed on Sunday, as a string of policies may be lending support to the ailing property market.” [LINK]

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As the @ChinaBeigeBook November flash data report said, “The housing market got better in November…Residential construction saw a dramatic improvement in sales prices versus last year and last month.”

 

November 4, 2024 (Wall Street Journal): “[Caixin services PMI] signaled a solid start to the fourth quarter as activity rose at the fastest pace in 3 months adding to signs that Beijing’s stimulus is starting to energize the economy..reading is in line w/ China’s official nonmanufacturing gauge” [LINK]

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November 14, 2024 (Bloomberg): “Retail sales expanded at the fastest in eight months in October, according to figures published by the National Bureau of Statistics on Friday, exceeding the forecasts of all 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. ” [LINK]

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Yes, @ChinaBeigeBook data agree. October’s consumer spending also improved, especially compared to recent months. Again, however, there is no credible way to attribute this to Beijing’s September stimulus announcements. Think of it simply as a better Golden Week than 2023.

October 31, 2024 (Bloomberg): “Both official and private measures of factory activity in Oct exceeded expectations while home sales saw their first rise..data were the first to capture a full month’s activity following Beijing’s largest efforts to boost the economy since the pandemic” [LINK]

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November 14, 2024 (Bloomberg): “Industrial production increased at a slightly slower pace from the previous month but hovered above a level critical to achieving the government’s 2024 growth target of around 5%.” [LINK]

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As @ChinaBeigeBook‘s flash release showed, manufacturing output as well as new domestic and export orders all rebounded into Oct. The timing couldn’t have been better for Beijing. But this isn’t a stimulus story. At least not as yet.

November 1, 2024 (Reuters): “housing ministry data showed that nationwide, total homes sold by volume in both primary and secondary market climbed 3.9% in Oct from a year ago. Sales volume in the new home and second-hand home market increased 0.9% and 8.9% year-on-year” [LINK]

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November 14, 2024 (Bloomberg): “Declines in home prices abated, although it takes time for property inventory to be digested and developer confidence to recover enough to invest in new projects.” [LINK]

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The housing market saw positive signs in October BUT as @ChinaBeigeBook‘s data showed, the recovery was again uneven: residential realtors saw sales and prices rise faster year-on-year while home builders reported a slowdown.

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October 31, 2024 (Bloomberg): “value of new-home sales from the 100 biggest real estate companies rose 7.1% from a year earlier, reversing from a 37.7% slump in Sep, according to preliminary data from China Real Estate Info Corp. Sales surged 73% from a month earlier.” [LINK]

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And yes, as @ChinaBeigeBook‘s October release said: “These data suggest a nascent recovery in secondary home sales amid continued weakness in new home sales.

October 14, 2024 (Bloomberg): “Chinese steel exports in September hit their highest level since 2016…he latest monthly figure of 10.2 million tons brings year-to-date volumes to nearly 81 million tons, up 21% from a year earlier.” [LINK]

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As @ChinaBeigeBook said: “seasonal ramp up in steel production carried into Sep..Output climbed vs Aug & year ago..Foreign mks also remained key demand driver for Chinese steel producers. Export order growth came in at the strongest levels observed in the month of Sep since 2019”

October 14, 2024 (Trading Economics): China September credit data:

Outstanding Loan Growth (Y/Y): 8.1% vs 8.5% in Aug (Exp: 8.3%)
New Yuan Loans: CNY1,590.0B vs 900.0B in Aug (Exp: 1100B)
Total Social Finance: CNY3,760.0B vs 3,030.0B in Aug (Exp: 3730B)

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Corporate credit uptake declined in September despite interest rates plummeting, per @ChinaBeigeBook

As we wrote: “The bottom-line: businesses have demonstrated little desire to leverage up, as seen consistently in our ‘Pent-up Demand’ indicator.”

October 14, 2024 (Bloomberg): “China’s export growth unexpectedly slowed in September, curbing a trade rebound that has been a bright spot for a weakening economy that policymakers are relying on manufacturing to power.” [LINK]

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As @ChinaBeigeBooks September flash data release said: “Manufacturing output continued decelerating from year-ago levels and was also lower than August. New domestic and export orders also continued to weaken both on-year and on-month.”

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It was @ChinaBeigeBook‘s August 2024 data that first signalled a pullback in both export orders and domestic orders. From the release: “Output decelerated on-year, while holding its pace from July. New domestic and export orders faded both on-year and on-month.”

 

 

September 13, 2024 (Bloomberg): “Infrastructure spending continues to cool as property investment contracts..While state capital-driven investment has been slowing, the deterioration in the private sector was even worse. Private investment fell 0.2% on year in the January-August period..first decline this year.“ [LINK]

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The investment picture also looked bleak in @ChinaBeigeBook‘s August data. From the Flash Data report: “CBB’s proprietary Fiscal Activity Index slipped again, confirming no robust fiscal expansion is in the pipes.”

 

September 13, 2024 (Reuters): “Outstanding yuan loans were up 8.5% year on year in August, down from 8.7% in July. Annual growth of outstanding total social financing (TSF), a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, slowed to 8.1% in August from 8.2% in July” [LINK]

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Lowering rates has failed to boost borrowing, as seen from a continued fall in outstanding loan growth.

As @ChinaBeigeBook‘s August report concluded, “Beijing’s attempts at policy easing are doing very little good for the economy.”

September 13, 2024 (Bloomberg): “Industrial output expanded at a slower rate than economists had expected, extending a weakening streak to the fourth month…That suggests the main driver of the Chinese economy this year — bolstered by exports and government support — is losing steam.” [LINK]

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As @ChinaBeigeBook data showed, China’s manufacturing sector is slowing (not contracting). The concern isn’t an all out industrial sector crisis as the PMI says. But a reliable growth driver is now struggling and economic headwinds are getting stronger.

September 13, 2024 (CNBC): “Retail sales rose by 2.1% in August from a year ago missing expectations of 2.5% growth among economists polled by Reuters. That was also slower than the 2.7% increase in July. Online sales of physical goods rose by just under 1% in August from a year ago.” [LINK]

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There was a broader pullback in consumer spending across goods and services in August.

As @ChinaBeigeBook said: “Retail sales volumes decelerated on-month and on-year. The pullbacks in food and apparel are especially worth watching.”

September 13, 2024 (CNBC): “Retail sales rose by 2.1% in August from a year ago missing expectations of 2.5% growth among economists polled by Reuters. That was also slower than the 2.7% increase in July. Online sales of physical goods rose by just under 1% in August from a year ago.” [LINK]

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Consumer spending also shifted into lower gear broadly in the final weeks of summer. Services sales slowed year-on-year but were largely unchanged from July.
Key: Sales in Travel, hospitality, and chain restaurants faded from summer seasonal peaks.

September 9, 2024 (Bloomberg): “Imports of copper concentrate rose to their second-highest ever to feed new Chinese smelting capacity, despite tight global supplies. That affected purchases of copper metal, which dropped to their lowest since February.” [LINK]

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Since early 2024 @ChinaBeigeBook data have shown rising copper production in China counter to market expectations. August was no different: output and capacity continued accelerating, as explained in our latest commodities note, “Oversupply Worries Intensify Over Key Metals”.

September 9, 2024 (Bloomberg): “Steel exports, a key channel for soaking up China’s surplus, surged 21% from July to 9.5 million tons, despite the backlash from trade partners seeking to protect their domestic industries.” [LINK]

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As @ChinaBeigeBook‘s Aug commodities note said: “…more Chinese supply will continue to find itself in overseas markets. Steel’s export orders index hit the highest level on record in CBB’s August surveys. Continue betting on rising tensions between China and its trade partners.”

August 16, 2024 (Bloomberg): “Iron ore hit the lowest level since 2022, on concern that a steel-industry crisis rippling across China will sap demand..Steel mills in China..have suffered from lackluster demand and sinking product prices, and many of them are cutting back on output.” [LINK]

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What did @ChinaBeigeBook signal in *MAY*

“Steel production index dropped off massively from Q1…monthly view shows output at lowest level ever recorded in May in our data…This trajectory coupled w/ a property mkt still treading water will likely keep iron ore demand subdued”

August 14, 2024 (Bloomberg): “Retail sales beat expectations largely on a seasonal uptick — boosting China’s stock market — though they remained far below pre-pandemic growth.” [LINK]

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The @ChinaBeigeBook July data also saw a monthly and on-year improvement in retail sales after nearly three consecutive months of deterioration. Can it last? We are still not betting on Chinese consumers to lift the economy in 2024.

August 13, 2024 (Bloomberg): “China’s bank loans to the real economy contracted for the first time in 19 years, a grim milestone that underscores why weak domestic demand has emerged as a major hurdle to the economy’s growth and recovery.” [LINK]

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From the July 2024 Flash Data release: “Corporate borrowing was unchanged into July, still lodged near all-time lows. Bond sales fell as yields jumped. No respite appears in sight: Pent-up demand for credit continues to crater, even as interest rates slide.”

June 20, 2024 (Reuters): “Production fell 3% compared with a year earlier, after growth of 5% in the first 5 months of 2023…Thermal power generation, mostly from coal-fired generators, fell slightly in May 2024 compared with May 2023 as output from hydro, solar and wind soared.” [LINK]

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May’s @ChinaBeigeBook coal industry survey showed production slowed year-on-year and was also down compared to Q1 2024. Importantly, capacity expansion plummeted. Coal production to continue declining?

 

June 18, 2024 (Financial Times): “The biggest glut of copper in 4 years has built up in Chinese warehouses. In the four weeks since the record high copper has fallen 13%… weak market in China has led copper for delivery to Shanghai to trade at discount to global benchmark price, a rare occurrence” [LINK]

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As @ChinaBeigeBook‘s May commodities note warned! “CBB data are clear as day on this one: there is much more copper available than markets have been anticipating..this is still the strongest production level for May seen in 5yrs..capacity expansion has only picked up since Q4-23”

June 16, 2024 (Bloomberg): “China’s aluminum production hit a record last month as smelters brought back idled capacity, potentially setting up the market for further declines after prices hit a two-year high in May. Aluminum output surged 7.2% year-on-year…” [LINK]

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Recent surge in aluminum prices was disconnected from fundamentals w/ output in May still at multi-year highs as @ChinaBeigeBook data showed. From our commodities note: “overall production trends appear much less supportive of the high conviction views of an aluminum deficit”

May 16, 2024 (Bloomberg): “Growth in consumer spending unexpectedly cooled to 2.3% in April, the slowest pace since 2022.” [LINK]

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Let’s recap what @ChinaBeigeBook‘s April data showed 2+ weeks ago:

Consumption: “Retail sales decelerated across all sub-sectors, with apparel reporting an on-year slowdown as well. Services was more mixed, with sales jumping most in travel…”

May 17, 2024 (Bloomberg): “China’s manufacturing sector, bolstered by robust foreign demand and favorable government policy, has powered the country’s recovery this year. Exports returned to growth in April.” [LINK]

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Factory activity: “Production and domestic orders decelerated from March, though both were higher than April 2023. Export orders sped up slightly over last month.”

May 17, 2024: “Auto sales were one of the biggest drags on spending, sliding 5.6% from a year earlier in the deepest single-month drop in almost two years. China’s carmakers are engaged in a price war that may be encouraging consumers to delay purchases.” [LINK]

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Autos: Car producers saw a month-on-month and year-on-year slowdown in sales into April. Dealerships also reported lower sales growth.

May 16, 2024 (Bloomberg): “From a year earlier, new-home prices fell 3.51% in April, steeper than March’s 2.7% drop, the statistics bureau said. Existing-home prices dropped 6.79%. Both were record declines since the bureau began the current method of collecting data in 2011.” [LINK]

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Property sales: “Property reported additional bad news in April: residential and commercial real estate sales and prices weakened sharply on-year and on-month. While Property hasn’t been all bad news for 3 years, the bad news definitely isn’t over.

May 17, 2024 (NBS): “Meanwhile, the property sector deteriorated across the board. Beijing on Friday announced new plans to shore it up, easing rules for borrowers and pledging public funds to purchase homes…Investment in property development plunged 9.8%.” [LINK]

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Property investment: “Predictably, starts and investment growth plummeted across residential and commercial construction. Moreover, CBB’s proprietary Fiscal Activity Index fell for a third consecutive month.”

May 11, 2024 (Bloomberg): “China’s credit in April shrank for the first time as government bond sales slowed, while loan expansion was worse than expected in a sign of weak demand.” [LINK]

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No surprises here for @ChinaBeigeBook clients. As we wrote in our April data release note:
“Corporate borrowing fell, despite loan rejections plummeting and interest rates falling. Beijing is trying to encourage borrowing to at least hold steady, and it’s not working.”

May 10, 2024 (Bloomberg): “China’s consumer-price index rose for a third straight month in April, increasing at a pace of 0.3% compared with a year earlier, according to official data released Saturday, edging up from March’s 0.1% reading and surpassing the 0.2% growth expected.” [LINK]

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What did @ChinaBeigeBook’s proprietary inflation gauges reveal in April?

“CBB’s input cost, sales price, and wage rate indices all slowed versus March. But on-year comparisons showed prices accelerating compared to last April, which may yield reassuring official inflation measures.”

May 22, 2024 (Reuters): “Higher copper concentrates availability has translated into higher domestic production of refined copper. After rising by 8% in the first quarter of the year, output growth accelerated to 9% in April.” [LINK]

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March 22, 2024: CBB Q1 Data Release

As @ChinaBeigeBook showed, copper production re-accelerated over Q1-24. Output was on par with year-ago levels and higher than Q4-23.

We also saw inventory build up resume, suggesting fears of output cuts & refined copper shortage in China aren’t (as yet) seen in the numbers.